2016 Pennsylvania Democratic primary



Pennsylvania Democratic primary, 2016





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Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg

Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate

Hillary Clinton

Bernie Sanders
Home state

New York

Vermont
Delegate count

106
83
Popular vote

935,107
731,881
Percentage

55.61%
43.53%


Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Election results by county.

  Hillary Clinton


  Bernie Sanders








The 2016 Pennsylvania Democratic primary was held on April 26 in the U.S. state of Pennsylvania as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.


The Democratic Party's primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island were held the same day, as were Republican primaries in the same five states, including their own Pennsylvania primary. Despite winning the Pennsylvania primary, Clinton went on to lose the state in the general election. The victory in Pennsylvania, together with other states in the so-called Blue Wall, won Trump the presidency.




Contents





  • 1 Opinion polling


  • 2 Results

    • 2.1 Results by county



  • 3 Analysis


  • 4 References




Opinion polling



























































































































Poll source
Date
1st
2nd
3rd
Other

Official Primary results
April 26, 2016

Hillary Clinton
55.6%

Bernie Sanders
43.5%

Other
0.9%
FOX 29/Opinion Savvy[1]

Margin of error: ± 3.2%

Sample size: 942


April 24, 2016

Hillary Clinton
52%

Bernie Sanders
41%

Others / Undecided
7%
CPEC LLC[2]

Margin of error: ± 2.3%

Sample size: 665


April 22–24, 2016

Hillary Clinton
63%

Bernie Sanders
37%


Public Policy Polling[3]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%

Sample size: 728


April 22–24, 2016

Hillary Clinton
51%

Bernie Sanders
41%

Others / Undecided
9%
American Research Group[4]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%

Sample size: 400


April 21-24, 2016

Hillary Clinton
58%

Bernie Sanders
38%

Others / Undecided
4%
Harper Polling[5]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%

Sample size: 641


April 21-23, 2016

Hillary Clinton
61%

Bernie Sanders
33%

Others / Undecided
6%
CBS/YouGov[6]

Margin of error: ± 6.7%

Sample size: 831


April 20-22, 2016

Hillary Clinton
51%


Bernie Sanders
43%


Others / Undecided
6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[7]

Margin of error: ± 1.9%

Sample size: 734


April 18-20, 2016

Hillary Clinton
55%

Bernie Sanders
40%

Others / Undecided
5%
Monmouth[8]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%

Sample size: 302


April 17-19, 2016

Hillary Clinton
52%

Bernie Sanders
39%

Others / Undecided
9%
Franklin & Marshall College[9]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%

Sample size: 510


April 11-18, 2016

Hillary Clinton
58%

Bernie Sanders
31%

Others / Undecided
11%
FOX News[10]

Margin of error: ± 3.5%

Sample size: 805


April 4-7, 2016

Hillary Clinton
49%

Bernie Sanders
38%

Others / Undecided
13%
Quinnipiac[11]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%

Sample size: 514


March 30-April 4, 2016

Hillary Clinton
50%


Bernie Sanders
44%


Others / Undecided
6%
Harper[12]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%

Sample size: 603


April 2-3, 2016

Hillary Clinton
55%

Bernie Sanders
33%

Others / Undecided
12%
Franklin & Marshall[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%

Sample size: 408


March 14-20, 2016

Hillary Clinton
53%

Bernie Sanders
28%

Others / Undecided
19%
Harper[14]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%

Sample size: 347


March 1-2, 2016

Hillary Clinton
57%

Bernie Sanders
27%

Others / Undecided
16%
Franklin & Marshall College[15]

Margin of error: ± 3.1%

Sample size: 486


February 13–21, 2016

Hillary Clinton
48%

Bernie Sanders
27%

Others / Undecided
25%
Robert Morris University[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%

Sample size: 511


February 11–16, 2016

Hillary Clinton
48%


Bernie Sanders
41%


Others / Undecided
11%
Harper[17]

Margin of error: ± 3.8%

Sample size: 640


January 22–23, 2016

Hillary Clinton
55%

Bernie Sanders
28%
Martin O'Malley
4%
Undecided 13%
Franklin & Marshall[18]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%

Sample size: 361


January 18–23, 2016

Hillary Clinton
46%

Bernie Sanders
29%
Martin O'Malley
2%
Other 7%, Undecided 16%

Polls in 2015
































































Poll source
Date
1st
2nd
3rd
Other
Franklin & Marshall[19]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%

Sample size: 303


October 19–25, 2015

Hillary Clinton
52%

Bernie Sanders
18%
Martin O'Malley
0%
Other 12%, Undecided 18%

Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.8%

Sample size: 416


October 8–11, 2015

Hillary Clinton
40%

Bernie Sanders
22%
Joe Biden
20%
Lincoln Chafee 3%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Lawrence Lessig 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Not Sure 12%
Quinnipiac University[20]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%

Sample size: 462


August 7–18, 2015

Hillary Clinton
45%

Bernie Sanders
19%
Joe Biden
17%
Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 12%
Quinnipiac University[21]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%

Sample size: 402


June 4–15, 2015

Hillary Clinton
53%

Joe Biden
15%
Bernie Sanders
10%
Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%

Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5%

Sample size: 385


May 21–24, 2015

Hillary Clinton
63%

Bernie Sanders
14%
Martin O'Malley
6%
Lincoln Chafee 3%, Jim Webb 3%, Not sure 12%

Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 4.8%

Sample size: 415


March 17–28, 2015

Hillary Clinton
48%

Elizabeth Warren
15%
Joe Biden
13%
Martin O'Malley 1%, Bernie Sanders 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%

Joe Biden
34%

Elizabeth Warren
27%
Martin O'Malley
4%
Bernie Sanders 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 3%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 25%

Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 5%

Sample size: 392


January 22 – February 1, 2015

Hillary Clinton
54%

Elizabeth Warren
12%
Joe Biden
10%
Martin O'Malley 2%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%

Joe Biden
34%

Elizabeth Warren
21%
Martin O'Malley
5%
Jim Webb 4%, Bernie Sanders 3%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 26%

Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.4%

Sample size: 494


January 15–18, 2015

Hillary Clinton
58%

Joe Biden
13%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Someone else/Undecided 11%



Polls in 2014


























Poll source
Date
1st
2nd
3rd
Other

Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5%

Sample size: 382


May 30 – June 1, 2014

Hillary Clinton
65%

Joe Biden
9%
Andrew Cuomo
5%
Elizabeth Warren 5%, Cory Booker 4%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Someone else/Not sure 10%

Franklin & Marshall College

Margin of error: ± 4.3%

Sample size: 524


March 25–31, 2014

Hillary Clinton
55%

Joe Biden
5%
Elizabeth Warren
4%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Howard Dean 0%, Other 5%, Undecided 29%

Franklin & Marshall College

Margin of error: ± 4.2%

Sample size: 548


February 18–23, 2014

Hillary Clinton
58%

Elizabeth Warren
7%
Joe Biden
6%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Howard Dean 1%, Other 3%, Undecided 23%



Polls in 2013














Poll source
Date
1st
2nd
3rd
Other

Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.7%

Sample size: 436


November 22–25, 2013

Hillary Clinton
61%

Joe Biden
13%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Cory Booker 2%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Mark Warner 0%, Someone Else/Undecided 9%




Results



































Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 26, 2016
Candidate
Popular vote
Estimated delegates
Count
Percentage

Pledged

Unpledged

Total

Hillary Clinton
935,107
55.61%
106
20
126

Bernie Sanders
731,881
43.53%
83
0
83

Rocky De La Fuente
14,439
0.86%
0
0
0
Total
1,681,427
100%
189
20
209
Source: The Green Papers, Pennsylvania State Elections Official Results


Results by county















































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































County[22]Clinton
%
Sanders
%
Others
Totals
Turnout
Margin
Adams3,86348.08%4,101
51.04%
71
8,035
41.15%
-2.96%
Allegheny123,71555.08%99,07844.11%
1,819
224,612
43.18%
10.97%
Armstrong2,99248.30%3,073
49.60%
130
6,195
39.00%
-1.31%
Beavers13,53156.92%9,87341.53%
369
23,773
40.41%
15.39%
Bedford1,38848.91%1,38748.87%
63
2,838
29.56%
0.04%
Berks21,06348.35%22,078
50.68%
422
43,563
37.68%
-2.33%
Blair3,96546.87%4,360
51.54%
135
23,988
35.27%
-4.67%
Bradford1,80948.88%1,839
49.69%
53
3,701
35.49%
-0.81%
Bucks46,91755.90%36,17343.10%
837
83,927
43.88%
12.80%
Butler8,79052.10%7,83346.43%
249
16,872
40.98%
5.67%
Cambria8,50747.16%9,024
50.02%
509
18,040
39.64%
-2.87%
Cameron18641.89%240
54.05%
18
444
36.33%
-12.16%
Carbon3,38448.73%3,460
49.82%
101
6,945
38.13%
-1.09%
Centre8,45844.72%10,331
54.63%
123
18,912
41.15%
-9.90%
Chester33,08255.62%26,19344.04%
204
59,479
46.05%
11.58%
Clarion1,52949.34%1,51148.76%
59
3,099
38.37%
0.58%
Clearfield3,19447.30%3,414
50.56%
145
6,753
32.18%
-3.26%
Clinton1,70448.63%1,739
49.63%
61
3,504
39.02%
-1.00%
Columbia2,50440.48%3,601
58.21%
81
6,186
39.59%
-17.73%
Crawaford3,70748.69%3,789
49.76%
118
7,614
39.39%
-1.08%
Cumberland12,42151.54%11,51347.77%
168
24,102
45.45%
3.77%
Dauphin18,47456.82%13,78742.41%
250
32,511
36.26%
14.42%
Delaware46,25259.73%30,82439.80%
363
77,439
43.45%
19.92%
Elk1,60145.50%1,846
52.46%
72
3,519
36.47%
-6.96%
Erie20,39552.17%18,36246.97%
338
39,095
40.76%
5.20%
Fayette9,19557.69%6,46040.53%
285
15,940
32.70%
17.16%
Forest25152.07%22145.85%
10
482
37.28%
6.22%
Franklin4,70751.69%4,28247.02%
118
9,107
37.27%
4.67%
Fulton36648.87%36548.73%
18
749
28.81%
0.13%
Greene2,26852.55%1,92744.65%
121
4,316
34.27%
7.90%
Huntingdon1,30443.28%1,666
55.29%
43
3,013
33.11%
-12.01%
Indiana4,04950.34%3,83947.73%
156
8,044
40.04%
2.61%
Jefferson1,24943.89%1,507
52.95%
90
9,712
29.30%
-9.07%
Juniata66445.60%754
51.79%
38
3,996
36.44%
-6.18%
Lackawanna23,02056.52%17,30842.49%
402
40,730
45.36%
14.02%
Lancaster19,84047.97%21,321
51.55%
197
41,358
40.14%
-3.58%
Lawrence5,84558.64%3,98139.94%
142
9,968
36.39%
18.70%
Lebanon4,66949.88%4,59949.13%
93
9,361
35.78%
0.75%
Lehigh20,43052.40%18,33847.03%
224
38,992
35.66%
5.37%
Luzerne20,54251.94%18,54346.89%
462
39,547
37.49%
5.05%
Lycoming3,80843.94%4,730
54.58%
128
8,666
39.29%
-10.64%
McKean1,05346.18%1,190
52.19%
37
2,280
31.50%
-6.01%
Mercer6,53056.99%4,73941.36%
190
11,459
33.91%
15.63%
Miflin1,20148.29%1,242
49.94%
44
2,487
32.93%
-1.65%
Monroe8,16953.27%7,04245.92%
123
15,334
31.37%
7.35%
Montgomery75,62859.00%52,13240.67%
421
128,181
49.31%
18.33%
Montour84647.85%890
50.34%
32
1,768
37.84%
-2.49%
Northampton18,10451.18%16,94047.89%
328
35,372
37.27%
3.29%
Northumberland3,58248.92%3,632
49.60%
108
7,322
33.78%
-0.68%
Perry1,32942.60%1,752
56.15%
39
3,120
43.59%
-13.56%
Philadelphia218,95962.59%129,35336.98%
1,493
349,805
43.50%
25.62%
Pike2,00951.22%1,89448.29%
19
3,922
29.70%
2.93%
Potter40240.94%560
57.03%
20
982
33.83%
-16.09%
Schuylkill6,53451.30%6,04047.42%
164
12,738
37.61%
3.88%
Snyder1,12550.40%1,08148.43%
26
2,232
41.42%
1.97%
Somerset3,11448.18%3,206
49.61%
143
6,463
35.95%
-1.42%
Sullivan31250.16%29647.59%
14
622
40.65%
2.57%
Susquehanna1,68050.42%1,61048.32%
42
3,332
41.41%
2.10%
Tioga1,05543.20%1,354
55.45%
33
2,442
34.07%
-12.24%
Union1,62650.50%1,57949.04%
15
3,220
46.09%
1.46%
Venango2,02048.08%2,087
49.68%
94
4,201
37.90%
-1.59%
Warren1,83651.66%1,66546.85%
53
3,554
33.49%
4.81%
Washington15,87257.43%11,26240.75%
505
27,639
41.38%
16.68%
Wayne1,85947.44%2,026
51.70%
34
3,919
39.12%
-4.26%
Westmoreland25,00954.31%20,28644.05%
754
46,049
39.24%
10.26%
Wyoming1,12348.21%1,168
50.42%
33
2,398
45.72%
-2.21%
York18,45950.72%17,54448.21%
390
36,393
36.74%
2.51%
Total935,10755.61%731,88143.53%
14,439
1,681,427
41.39%
12.09%


Analysis


Clinton won a large victory over runner-up Bernie Sanders in Pennsylvania, replicating her 2008 performance against Barack Obama in the Keystone state. According to exit polls, Clinton won the white vote 51-47 (68% of the electorate), won the African American vote 70-30 (19% of the electorate), and won among women 60-39 (she lost men 50-49 to Sanders). While Sanders won among younger voters 63-37, Clinton won voters over the age of 45 66-33. Clinton swept all income and educational attainment levels except for whites without college degrees, whom Sanders won 50-49.


Clinton swept all political ideologies in the primary. She won Democrats 62-38 but lost self-identified Independents to Sanders 72-26.


Clinton also won among unions 56-43, a very important demographic in a big manufacturing state like Pennsylvania.


Clinton won large victories in all of Pennsylvania's major cities: she won in Philadelphia 63-37, the affluent Philadelphia suburbs 58-42, and also carried the cities of Pittsburgh and Erie. She won in Northeastern Pennsylvania 51-48, and in Western Pennsylvania 54-45. Sanders, for his part, did better in the rural parts of the state, winning rural voters 50-48 and carrying Central Pennsylvania 50-49.[23] Sanders swept many of the more remote and conservative counties of the state, including parts of Amish country such as Lancaster County.


Of her victory in the Keystone State, New York Times analyst Alan Rappeport commented, "Lots of Philadelphia history and imagery coming from Clinton now. It's almost as if she has her convention speech ready."[24]



References




  1. ^ "Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Poll 4/25/16" (PDF). Opinion Savvy. April 25, 2016. Retrieved April 25, 2016..mw-parser-output cite.citationfont-style:inherit.mw-parser-output qquotes:"""""""'""'".mw-parser-output code.cs1-codecolor:inherit;background:inherit;border:inherit;padding:inherit.mw-parser-output .cs1-lock-free abackground:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Lock-green.svg/9px-Lock-green.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center.mw-parser-output .cs1-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .cs1-lock-registration abackground:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg/9px-Lock-gray-alt-2.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center.mw-parser-output .cs1-lock-subscription abackground:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg/9px-Lock-red-alt-2.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registrationcolor:#555.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription span,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration spanborder-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-errordisplay:none;font-size:100%.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-errorfont-size:100%.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration,.mw-parser-output .cs1-formatfont-size:95%.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-leftpadding-left:0.2em.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-rightpadding-right:0.2em


  2. ^ "Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Poll" (PDF). CPEC LLC. April 26, 2016. Retrieved April 26, 2016.


  3. ^ "Clinton, Sanders close in CT/PA/RI; Trump Headed for Big Wins" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. April 25, 2016. Retrieved April 25, 2016.


  4. ^ "2016 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary - Clinton 58%, Sanders 38% (ARG 4/21-4/24)". American Research Group. April 26, 2016. Retrieved April 26, 2016.


  5. ^ "Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Poll". Harper Polling. April 26, 2016. Retrieved April 26, 2016.


  6. ^ "Poll: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton lead in Pennsylvania, Indiana". Retrieved 2016-04-24.


  7. ^ "Trump and Clinton Hold Strong Leads in Pennsylvania, New Poll Shows". Retrieved 2016-04-24.


  8. ^ "PENNSYLVANIA: CLINTON LEADS SANDERS BY 13" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-04-20.


  9. ^ "April 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-04-21.


  10. ^ "Fox News Poll: Trump holds huge lead in Pennsylvania, Clinton up over Sanders". Retrieved 2016-04-10.


  11. ^ "Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Poll March 30-April 4, 2016" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-04-06.


  12. ^ "Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Poll April 2-3, 2016". Retrieved 2016-04-05.


  13. ^ "March 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-03-24.


  14. ^ "PENNSYLVANIA STATEWIDE POLL REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES".


  15. ^ "Franklin & Marshall February 13–21, 2016" (PDF).


  16. ^ "2016 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary – Clinton 48%, Sanders 41% (Robert Morris University 2/11-2/16)".


  17. ^ Field, Nick. "Harper Poll: Clinton 55% Sanders 28%". Politics PA. Retrieved 5 February 2016.


  18. ^ "January 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll" (PDF). Franklin & Martin. 28 January 2016. Retrieved 5 February 2016.


  19. ^ "Franklin and Marshall College Poll: Survey of Pennsylvanians Summary of Findings" (PDF). Franklin & Marshall. 29 October 2015. Retrieved 22 January 2016.


  20. ^ "Quinnipiac poll" (PDF). Quinnipiac.edu. Retrieved 2015-08-20.


  21. ^ "Quinnipiac poll" (PDF). quinnipiac.edu. Retrieved 2015-07-09.


  22. ^ http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ENR_New/Home/CountyResults?countyName=Tioga&ElectionID=54&ElectionType=P&IsActive=0


  23. ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-10-16.


  24. ^ "Pennsylvania Primary Election Results 2016". Retrieved 2016-10-16.









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